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MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1270 Fri; -0.95% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY358.05 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1270 FRI VS 7.1321

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MNI JAPAN JULY TOKYO CORE CPI +2.2% Y/Y; JUNE +2.1%

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DB: No Public Sector Payrolls Contribution

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Deutsche Bank look for both nonfarm and private payrolls growth of 150k for a further “moderate downshift”, implying zero public sector contribution in payback from a very strong three months.
  • This should lift the u/e rate a tenth to 3.6% assuming a slight uptick in labor force participation to 62.7%.
  • They will also pay close attention to the breadth of job gains. Of the 808k increase in private payrolls in the first three months of the year, a little over 80% came from just three sectors; leisure & hospitality (261k), education & health services (261k) and professional & business services (138k). The diffusion index of private employment will be important to follow over the coming months.
  • AHE is seen increasing 0.3% M/M (steady 4.2% Y/Y) with hours worked also steady at 34.4hrs, leaving the Y/Y growth rate of their payroll proxy for income (specifically compensation) rising by roughly 20bps to a still-sturdy 6.5%.
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