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DB: Rent Inflation Above 5% By End 2Q22

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Deutsche see rent inflation above 5% by the end of Q2 judging by their composite of leading indicators which includes house prices, unemployment and vacancies.
  • Back in August, they argued "that the fate of the "transitory vs. persistent" debate will be determined by the domestic and more persistent components of inflation such as rents and OER rather than used cars."
  • They previously saw "rent inflation bottoming and reaching ~4.5% by the end of Q1 2022" and today's data are so far moving in line with this.
  • Using this analysis, with rent inflation at 3.0% Y/Y in Nov, that would add 0.2pps to core CPI Y/Y inflation from the current pace.
  • If OER moves with a similar trend, that could be more impactful as it has three times the weight of rents in the basket. OER inflation currently stands at 3.5% Y/Y.
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