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DB: Softer Core CPI In Jan, Y/Y Peaking In Feb

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Dec CPI data came in slightly above Deutsche’s expectations (headline +0.47% M/M, core +0.55%) “but the major drivers we identified prior to the data did, in fact, materialize”.
  • There was the expected rise in new & used vehicles while “rents continued their string of above average monthly prints (+0.4% for both primary and OERs)”.
  • “Even lodging away and airfares showed large price increases (1.2% and 2.7%), suggesting that the onset of omicron and the associated travel disruptions did not seem to dent the robust demand for holiday related travel”.
  • However, they see sequential inflation slowing in Jan, with headline at +0.26% M/M and core +0.36% M/M.
  • They forecast headline to peak in Jan at 7.1% Y/Y and core in Feb at 6.0% Y/Y before receding to 3.3% by Dec’22.
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