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de Guindos: Past Tightening Should Still Have An Effect On Real Economy

ECB

Q: The ECB’s seasonally adjusted services inflation has seen no progress relative to this time last year. Should we be worried that 2024 is not just a bumpy process due to base effects?


A:

  • The underlying metrics are backward looking indicators to some extent.
  • What will be important are wages. Once you get rid of one-offs, dynamics indicate that wages are on a downward trend.
  • I do not believe that all past decisions we have taken have been fully passed through to the real economy yet.

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