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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
The debate between Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and Republican candidate former President Donald Trump did not deliver any knockout blows or election-defining moments. What this debate did do was move the needle of the election in Harris' direction after a period in which the finely balanced election contest had been shifting back to Trump. We will have a full review of the debate in our US Daily Brief to be published later today.
- For the most part, it was Harris who was able to put Trump on the defensive. Trump sought to label Harris as weak on immigration, a major issue but digressed into stories of immigrants eating people's pets. On the economy, Trump also failed to deliver any significant blows. Harris on the other hand was able to push Trump on the issue of abortion, a major wedge issue in the election.
- The snap CNN poll of debate watchers showed 63% of respondents said Harris won compared to 37% for Trump. Prior to the debate the sample group was split 50-50 in which candidate they expected to win.
- Betting markets showed a reverse in sentiment, with the small advantage built up by trump in recent days erased. Prior to the start of the debate, data from electionbettingodds.com had Trump with a 50.7% implied probability of winning to Harris' 47.6%. Now these numbers stand at 51.8% for Harris and 47.0% for Trump.
- One potentially notable debate event came in the endorsement of Harris by pop star Taylor Swift. The Pennsylvania native's social media reach (283mn Instagram followers) is far greater than either of the campaigns and is especially high among younger women. This cohort is already strongly tilted towards Harris, but the endorsement could assist in boosting voter registrations among her fans who were previously not inclined to vote.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Election Winner, %
Source: electionbettingodds.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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