Debt Office Reduces 2024 Bill Issuance; Bond Issuance Unchanged

The National Debt office did not make major changes to its borrowing plan in its second “Forecast and analysis” publication of 2024.

• Nominal bond auction sizes will rise to SEK4bln in August as planned (from SEK3.5bln at present). There are no changes to inflation linked bond auction sizes, and a foreign currency bond is still expected to be issued in 2025.
• Total borrowing needs are lower across 2024 and 2025, with the projected weakening in finances “somewhat milder than previously expected” due to stronger tax revenues.
• The 2024 net borrowing requirement is now expected at SEK71bln (vs SEK84bln prior), with 2025 revised a touch higher to SEK56bln (vs SEK50bln prior).
• The lower 2024 net borrowing requirement is reflected in reduced bill issuance this year, with bonds/linker issuance unchanged.
• 2024 Government debt (as a % of GDP) is thus expected at 17% (vs 18% prior), while overall public debt to GDP seen steady at 33%.
• The Debt Office’s macroeconomic forecasts were largely unchanged relative to the February report.
• The Debt Office also noted that from 2025 it will only publish two borrowing reports per year (rather than three at present).