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SINGAPORE: Dec Exports Firmer Than Forecast, Next Thursday Inflation Prints

SINGAPORE
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Singapore Dec exports surprised on the upside, non-oil exports up 1.7%m/m, versus -0.8% forecast (prior was 14.7%). In y/y terms we rose 9.0%, also above the 7.4% forecast (prior 3.4%). Electronic exports were up 18.6%, slightly down from the Nov 23.1% pace. Non-electronic exports were up 6.6%y/y, versus -1.6% in Nov. 

  • Like other export orientated economies, Singapore saw better export growth momentum to the tail end of 2024, see the chart below (Singapore is the grey line). Part of this may reflects efforts to front load shipments ahead potential US tariff/trade action. For Dec, Singapore exports to the US rose 30.7%y/y. We were negative in terms of exports to the EU and China in y/y terms.
  • A firmer picture on underlying trends may not emerge until we progress through Q1 of this year.
  • The data won't add much to the case for a MAS easing at the Jan meeting. Market expectations have been rising for a shift around a reduced pace of SGD NEER appreciation, with the NEER now around -1.5% away from the top end of the band (per Goldman Sachs estimates).
  • Note next Thursday we get the Dec inflation print, with recent prints coming in below market expectations. Core y/y was sub 2.0% For Nov. 

Fig 1: Key Asian Export Trends Y/Y 

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Singapore Dec exports surprised on the upside, non-oil exports up 1.7%m/m, versus -0.8% forecast (prior was 14.7%). In y/y terms we rose 9.0%, also above the 7.4% forecast (prior 3.4%). Electronic exports were up 18.6%, slightly down from the Nov 23.1% pace. Non-electronic exports were up 6.6%y/y, versus -1.6% in Nov. 

  • Like other export orientated economies, Singapore saw better export growth momentum to the tail end of 2024, see the chart below (Singapore is the grey line). Part of this may reflects efforts to front load shipments ahead potential US tariff/trade action. For Dec, Singapore exports to the US rose 30.7%y/y. We were negative in terms of exports to the EU and China in y/y terms.
  • A firmer picture on underlying trends may not emerge until we progress through Q1 of this year.
  • The data won't add much to the case for a MAS easing at the Jan meeting. Market expectations have been rising for a shift around a reduced pace of SGD NEER appreciation, with the NEER now around -1.5% away from the top end of the band (per Goldman Sachs estimates).
  • Note next Thursday we get the Dec inflation print, with recent prints coming in below market expectations. Core y/y was sub 2.0% For Nov. 

Fig 1: Key Asian Export Trends Y/Y 

Keep reading...Show less