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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMAN DATA
German final December HICP was unrevised from the flash readings as expected at 3.8% Y/Y (+2.3% Nov) and 0.2% M/M (-0.7% Nov). The final reading of CPI was also unrevised at 3.7% Y/Y (+3.2% Nov) and 0.1% M/M (-0.4% Nov). Core CPI printed at 3.5% Y/Y (+3.8% Nov), and CPI inflation for total 2023 printed at 5.9% Y/Y on average (6.9% 2022). For the monthly headline CPI Y/Y, this was the first uptick after five declines in a row.
- The split among the main December CPI components confirmed the flash reading. Goods prices printed at +4.1% Y/Y, with services at +3.2% Y/Y.
- Energy was the main riser compared to November, at +4.1% Y/Y (vs -4.5% Nov) on base effects from energy subsidies starting last December. Looking at underlying drivers from the subcategories that weren't available in the flash reading: natural gas prices increased +34% Y/Y and district heating prices +58% Y/Y. Light heating oil prices decreased -11% Y/Y, and fuel prices came in at -1.1% Y/Y. On a monthly comparison, however, energy prices showed progress and declined -1.9% M/M.
- Food prices, which were one of the main upside drivers of inflation in 2023 as a whole, saw some disinflation, coming in at +4.6% Y/Y (+5.5% prior).
- Notable items within core inflation were package holidays at +3.0% Y/Y and restaurant and hospitality services at +5.6% Y/Y. A subsidised public transport ticket introduced in May 2023 (“Deutschlandticket”) continued to account for a low Y/Y figure for train and bus tickets (-22.9% Y/Y).
- MNI’s HICP inflation breadth indicator (see chart below) shows disinflation progressing across higher-end outliers, with the percentage of categories printing at above 6% decreasing clearly to 26.9%, down from 33.6% in November. However, only 29.2% of categories printed below 2% Y/Y inflation in December (29.5% prior), with the rebound in energy categories only partially offset by disinflation in other categories.
- The January inflation print will be subject to increased uncertainty, driven by yearly price recalculations and various changes to tax rates.
MNI, Destatis
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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