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Dec Housing Wrap: Weakness Continues But Signs Of Stabilizing

CANADA DATA
  • Canadian housing market shows signs of stabilizing as sales decreases slow and new listings decline.
  • Existing home sales -0.9% in Dec, the fifth consecutive decline, but the smallest decrease since July.
  • Teranet Housing Index -0.9% MOM in Dec, +3.2% YOY.
  • New listings -1.8% in November, CREA said sellers may be waiting for interest-rate cuts. This brings the sales-to-listing ratio to +49.8%, the first increase since April.
  • Housing starts fell sharply by -22% to 212.6K units, the lowest in 6M. CMHC Deputy Chief Economist Kevin Hughes expects continued slower starts in coming months.
  • Canadians paid a record 15.2% of disposable income on debt service costs in Q3 in a reflection of the sting from the central bank's 10 interest-rate hikes.
  • Rate hikes discouraging new borrowing with StatsCan reporting the slowest growth in household liabilities since 1990 of 3.2%.
  • BoC staff analytical note says 80% of mortgages outstanding in Feb 2022 will face a payment increase by the end of 2025. Since BoC started raising rates, mortgage interest payments +90%.
  • Mortgage delinquency rates have been stable in 2023 but regulators have signaled banks should offer relief to borrowers in trouble.
  • Opinion polls continue to show governing Liberals lag Conservatives as voters see cost of living/housing as top issue. Record immigration also a question as rents rising around fastest pace in decades and some evidence new arrivals are adding a boost on top of longstanding lag in housing supply.
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