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Dec Inflation Largely Falling In Line With Estimates

EUROZONE
The incoming eurozone inflation data have provided limited surprises so far, perhaps leaning to the soft side of expectations but not by much. Based solely on the HICP results received so far (which is under 40% of the total basket) and consensus estimates for tomorrow's Dutch and Italian prints, Y/Y HICP is tracking around 2.8-2.9% Y/Y by MNI estimates, vs 3.0% consensus. Very roughly speaking, the 3.4% Y/Y estimate for core HICP looks reasonable (a deceleration from 3.6% in Nov).
  • Following French and German state data today, Goldman Sachs tracks Eurozone December HICP at 2.86% Y/Y (0.02pp lower than their estimate before this morning), with core at 3.40% (up 0.01pp from their prior and exactly in line with the 3.4% consensus).
  • Goldman tracks German national HICP based on state-level data at around 3.7% (in line with their prior expectation. They also track German HICP core inflation at 3.4%.
  • JPMorgan eyes 3.7% German national CPI (in line with MNI's 3.67% calculation) with core CPI around 3.5% (also in line with MNI's tracking estimate, and vs 3.8% in Nov). However they see package holiday prices creating uncertainty in translating CPI to HICP.
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