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Dec IP Above Expectations On Chip Rebound, Jan Trade Data Due Tomorrow

SOUTH KOREA

South Korea industrial production was stronger than expected in Dec. We rose 0.6% m/m, after a revised 3.6% gain in Nov. In y/y terms we rose 6.2%, also above the 5.3% projected. The y/y pace is now back to Q2 2022 levels.

  • A source of strength was chip production up 8.5% m/m, following Nov's 13.2% rise. This bought the y/y pace to a heady +53.3% for this segment, the firmest since 2016. Vehicles were another area of strength, but other segments were less upbeat though.
  • Other data showed retail sales down 0.8% m/m. Services sector output was modestly positive at +0.3% m/m.
  • The chart below overlays y/y IP against export growth. Note tomorrow we get full month export data for Jan. The consensus looks for +17.6% y/y export growth (+5.0% prior), with imports forecast at -8.1%.

Fig 1: South Korean IP & Export Growth Y/Y

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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