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December CPI Data Due At 1200GMT/ 0700ET

MEXICO
  • Headline inflation is expected to have risen to 7.84% in December from 7.80% prior, a figure that would remain below the September peak. The result implies average inflation of 8.0% and average core inflation of 8.4% in 4Q, compared with central bank expectations of 8.3%. It would add evidence that inflation has peaked and support expectations for it to gradually reduce in 2023.
  • Non-processed food prices rose in the first two weeks of December. They likely rose again in the following two weeks and were up from the month prior.
  • Energy and regulated inflation should rebound bolstered by base effects. Gasoline prices rose from the month prior due to waning government subsidies. Propane prices fell in line with global gas markets.
  • Core goods inflation may fall after hitting 11.3% in November. The decline would be the first since July 2021, and be driven mostly by base effects with core services inflation likely falling from 5.35%.
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