December Employment Estimates

Broad range of opinions from 33 economists polled by Bbg on this Friday's change in Dec Nonfarm Payrolls from +150k to +1.1M (Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomic), median est +420k vs +210k in Nov.

• Deutsche Bank: "With the four week moving average of initial jobless claims down about 70k from the survey week in November, " DB expects a jobs to climb by +375k (+300k private).
  • "The Fed will want to see the unemployment rate (4.2% vs. 4.2%) continuing to fall, or at minimum remaining stable amidst a rising labor force participation rate. The rise of the omicron variant could put a damper on that though, given that covid is the major factor weighing on participation, particularly for prime age workers."
• JP Morgan: Expects jobs gain off +450k for December and slightly lower unemployment rate of 4.1%.
  • "While establishment survey job growth disappointed in November and there are signs that consumer spending was weak during the holiday season, there are several reasons we expect firming in job growth in December relative to November" citing "a boomy November increase in household survey employment and continued strength in our employment nowcasters."