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COLOMBIA: December Industrial, Retail Confidence, Finance Minister In Congress

COLOMBIA
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  • Industrial and retail confidence figures for December are due today. Further ahead, November trade and December unemployment data are expected later this week, before Friday’s BanRep interest rate decision, when another 25bp cut to 9.25% is expected. Risks may be skewed towards a pause, however, after Finance Minister Guevara raised that possibility earlier this month, and given the volatility following the political spat with the US earlier this week.
  • BBVA says that there is a high level of caution inside BanRep given the example of Brazil, but add that BanRep’s hawkishness may be put to a bigger test in March with the new board structure. They also say that the delay in government spending that was announced yesterday is a positive for COP, but that more is needed.
  • To recap, Finance Minister Guevara said that the proposal to delay COP 12tn (0.7% of GDP) of this year’s spending will be published in the coming weeks, as he acknowledged that there is no room for discussion of another tax bill in Congress to cover the budget shortfall. Two-thirds of the spending that has been delayed relates to operating expenses and one-third to public investment. Today, Guevara will be in congress where the government’s declaration of a state of internal commotion will be discussed from 1500GMT(1000ET).
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  • Industrial and retail confidence figures for December are due today. Further ahead, November trade and December unemployment data are expected later this week, before Friday’s BanRep interest rate decision, when another 25bp cut to 9.25% is expected. Risks may be skewed towards a pause, however, after Finance Minister Guevara raised that possibility earlier this month, and given the volatility following the political spat with the US earlier this week.
  • BBVA says that there is a high level of caution inside BanRep given the example of Brazil, but add that BanRep’s hawkishness may be put to a bigger test in March with the new board structure. They also say that the delay in government spending that was announced yesterday is a positive for COP, but that more is needed.
  • To recap, Finance Minister Guevara said that the proposal to delay COP 12tn (0.7% of GDP) of this year’s spending will be published in the coming weeks, as he acknowledged that there is no room for discussion of another tax bill in Congress to cover the budget shortfall. Two-thirds of the spending that has been delayed relates to operating expenses and one-third to public investment. Today, Guevara will be in congress where the government’s declaration of a state of internal commotion will be discussed from 1500GMT(1000ET).