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December Inflation Data Expected

MEXICO
  • The Mexican peso has traded in a very narrow range overnight on Tuesday. USDMXN is consolidating its strong post-payrolls decline around the 16.85 mark ahead of the publication of December’s CPI inflation data. While the headline rate is expected to rise to 4.57% y/y, from 4.46% in mid-December, policymakers will put more emphasis on the core rate which is expected to further decline to 5.15%, from 5.19% two weeks ago. This would be the lowest since September 2021.
  • Currently, markets expect Banxico to begin its easing cycle in March, but any downside surprise to December inflation may increase the possibility of a first move happening in February. Data is due for release at 1200 GMT (0700 ET):
    • Dec. CPI Inflation YoY, est. 4.57%, prior 4.32%
    • Dec. CPI Inflation MoM, est. 0.62%, prior 0.64%
    • Dec. Core CPI Inflation YoY, est. 5.15%, prior 5.30%
    • Dec. Core CPI Inflation MoM, est. 0.49%, prior 0.26%
  • Elsewhere, international reserves data for the week to January 5th will also be published today (1500 GMT/1000 ET). Reserves spiked to $212.762 bn at the end of last year.
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