February 07, 2025 08:19 GMT
GERMAN DATA: December Trade Surplus Increases Amid Higher Exports
GERMAN DATA
The German trade balance surprisingly increased in December to E20.7bln (seasonally-adjusted, vs E17.0bln cons; E19.7bln prior, revised from E19.2bln). That came as the growth in exports (+2.9% M/M vs -0.5% cons, +2.3% Nov revised from +2.1%) outstripped that of imports (+2.1% M/M vs +1.9% cons, -2.7% Nov revised from -3.3%).
On a longer-term view, the German trade surplus appears to be stalling however - the surplus fell back to 5.6% GDP on a 12-month rolling basis. For context, it has recovered since October 2022 when it saw a 2.0% low but remains well below its highs of almost 8%.
- Imports from the EU (+3.6% M/M), the US (+3.0%) and a "rest of world" collation (+0.5%) increased, while they decreased from China (-1.0%, third consecutive decline). On a 2024 vs 2023 comparison, imports from all these constituencies declined (all broadly around the 3% mark except China which was only slightly negative).
- The exports increase appears rather broad-based in December, with volumes to the Eurozone (+5.9% M/M), China (+1.4%) and "rest of world" collation (+0.2%) rising - only to the US, exports fell (-3.5%). On a broader view, exports to China remain on a longer-term downtrend in place since around mid-2022 (2024 vs 2023 total -7.3%, while exports to the US have been broadly stable since then (leaving aside some in-between volatility; 2024 vs 2023 total +2.4%).
- Looking ahead, there appears to be little sign of an imminent revival of external demand for German products: IFO export expectations fell in in January, at -7.3 points (vs -6.1 Dec) - "the positive momentum abroad has so far had no significant impact on domestic exporters", IFO concludes.
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