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Decent Short Covering Ahead Heavy Data, FOMC Minutes Wednesday

US TSYS
  • Treasuries are firmer, off midmorning highs after the bell. Treasuries pared gains after higher than expected JOLTS job openings of 8.14M vs. 7.946M est, while prior was down-revised to 7.919M from 8.059M.
  • Futures extended midmorning highs (TYU4 109-19.5) after Fed Chair Powell made mildly dovish comments from from central bank economics conference in Sintra, Portugal. Recent inflation data suggest that "we are getting back on a disinflationary path", Powell stated, with the caveat that more is needed to be more confident that inflation is headed sustainably to 2% before loosening policy.
  • Tsy Sep'24 10Y futures currently trade 109-13.5 last (+8) -- still well off last Friday's post-Core PCE highs of 110-16. Decent volumes for typically muted summer trade, TYU4 over 1.4M contracts at the moment -- likely due to positioning ahead Thursday's 4th of July holiday closure.
  • Technical resistance above at 110-00 20-day EMA. Curves reversed/pared early steepening are still near the least inverted levels since May 3: 2s10s currently -0.512 at -30.362 (-27.845 high), 5s30s +1,644 at 21.238 (+24.086 high).
  • Heavy data drop on Wednesday's shortened session (floor closes at 1300ET, cash at 1300ET while Globex closes at normal time of 1700ET): Challenger Job Cuts, ADP Employment, Weekly Jobless claims, ISM Services, Factory/Durables Orders and June FOMC Minutes. Friday's full session sees June Non-Farm Payroll data.
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