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Decent start to the day

GILTS
  • Decent start for gilts this morning, outperforming Bunds but underperforming Treasuries as the market digests yesterday's 4 week delay to the lockdown roadmap (which was well anticipated by the market).
  • Most restrictions will remain unchanged but the 30-guest limit on weddings will be removed (albeit social distancing will still limit guest numbers). While sports and outside events will be allowed with larger crowds (notably Wimbledon and the knock-out stages of Euro 2020).
  • This morning's labour market data were once again encouraging with PAYE data showing a 197k increase in payrolled employees in May (the largest monthly increase since records began in July 2014). However, this is still 553k below the February 2020 level with London and under-25s seeing the biggest losses to employment.
  • BOE Governor Bailey is due to speak today at 13:15BST at The CityUK Annual Conference, but is unlikely to make new comments on monetary policy ahead of next week's MPC meeting.
  • US data will impact markets globally (particularly PPI at 13:30BST but also retail sales/IP).
  • Supply today consists of the 7-year 0.125% Jan-28 for GBP2.75bln and 30-year 1.25% Jul-51 for GBP2bln. Long-dated gilts will be eligible for the BOE's APF purchase operation today.
  • Our technical analyst sees the next gilt resistance at 128.39 (high June 11) and support at 127.34 (low June 10) but a positive technical picture.
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