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Decision a relief - largely in line with expectations ahead of this week's data

BOE
  • Overall, the BOE meeting was almost exactly in line with the expectations made ahead of this week's data. And the MPC has largely downplayed the significance of this week's data.
  • On private sector regular AWE they note that the deceleration has brought wage growth closer to levels suggested by other surveys. And on the downside surprise to services inflation, they note that the components that surprised to the downside were not necessarily components that aid forecasting a lower trend. Yesterday's October activity data was noted to be weaker than expected, but with the caveat the -0.3%M/M fall in GDP followed a +0.2%M/M rise in September.
  • As we noted ahead of the decision, this week's data and yesterday's Fed had seen a market repricing going into today's meeting. And through that lens today's statement was not as dovish as some had hoped for (particularly with the 6-3 vote breakdown). But bigger picture we don't think today's decision really changes much - and market pricing coming back a bit supports that view too.
  • And it also sets the market up for potential moves in either direction for next week's CPI print - another soft services CPI print would be harder to ignore for 2 months in a row, but on the flip side a higher print could see the market pull back from pricing so many cuts in 2024.

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