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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TURKEY
- Yesterday, economic data showed that CPI inflation accelerated to 79.6% in July, up from 78.6% the previous month, maintaining the level of uncertainty in Turkish market 'extremely elevated'.
- Last month, we also saw that the 12M expected inflation also continued to surge in July up to 40.2% (vs. 37.9% exp.), confirming that inflation expectations keep de-anchoring in the current environment.
- Sell-side analysts are now expecting inflation to peak at around 90% in October / November before starting to decelerate.
- Hence, the 'deep' negative real 10Y yield (currently at around -60%) should continue to weigh on the lira and domestic risky assets in the near to medium term.
- TRY is the worst performing currency among the EM world so far this year, down nearly 26% against the US Dollar.
- We have seen that the USDTRY spot rate has been testing the 18 resistance level; price action suggests that CBRT is likely to have been ‘protecting’ the 18 level in recent days.
- A clear break above the 18 level would open the door for a move up to 18.36 (all time high).
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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