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Delayed Buying Post-Durables, Implied Hikes Recede

US TSY FUTURES
Tsy futures delayed rebound as mkt digested Durables/Cap Goods data.
  • January reading of Capital Goods Orders is -12.8% vs. +14.6% in Dec. The proxy for Capital Expenditures (Capital Goods , non-defense, ex-aircraft) is +0.8% vs. -0.3% prior.
  • Futures rebound from session lows to extending moderate session highs, 30s back near early Friday, pre-PCE levels: USH3 124-10 (+10), 30YY at 3.9217% -.0092; TUH3 101-22.5 (+1.88), 2YY4.7720% -.0415.
  • STIR: Fed funds implied hike for Mar'23 at 29.4bp (-.7), May'23 cumulative 56.0bp (-1.2) to 5.138%, Jun'23 73.2bp (-2.1) to 5.310%, terminal at 5.38-5.385 in Aug'23-Oct'23 (5.41-5.415% prior).

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