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Delays To Fiscal Framework Announcement Marginally Weighing On BRL

LATAM FX
  • Bolstered risk sentiment and higher core yields have underpinned the bounce in MXN and CLP on Tuesday, which have both risen around 0.6% on the session. The Brazilian real is underperforming, potentially with further discussions being needed over the fiscal framework being perceived as a marginally negative development.
  • With that said, the lack of new information bolsters the likelihood of no surprises from the BCB which may help strengthen the local currency later this week. TD pointed out that they expect BRL to strengthen towards 5.15 after the monetary policy decision, thinking the currency can benefit from a Selic rate on hold and a communiqué that may not sound as dovish as markets are expecting.
  • Analysts have also highlighted the 100 & 200-day moving averages intersecting around 5.22-5.2250 today in USDBRL.
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