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Dell FV (EU500m WNG 5Y Fixed; Baa2)

CREDIT SUPPLY


  • IPT given at MS+110a looks slightly wide; we see FV around MS+72.5a.
  • Not many great EUR comps in this space though we note that Dell 26s and 27s trade quite in line with the BBB EU tech curve though IPT implies it will come wide at this maturity.
  • The existing EUR bonds have been flattening; the spread between their 26s and 27s has been flattening since mid-April, coming in around 17.5bps since then.
  • Sentiment largely positive around the credit; Dell’s Q1 results were strong despite the equity sell-off based on lofty tech expectations. Core leverage in line with LT target of 1.5x as of FY24 with a strong rating outlook (Fitch in October had an upside threshold of 2x, Moody’s upside at debt sustained near 1.5x). Dividends are increasing though total payouts are tied to 80% of FCF with consensus implying FCF to stay above USD 5bn this year and rising to USD 7bn next year. Large-scale acquisitions not a focus in recent times though smaller strategic deals may increase with leverage back on target.

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