May 29, 2024 02:12 GMT
Demand And Inflation Pressures Easing
NEW ZEALAND
ANZ business confidence and activity outlook for May fell to their lowest since September last year as the economic environment continued to deteriorate. Confidence fell to 11.2 from 14.9 and the outlook to 11.8 from 14.3 due to weakening construction and services. Price and cost measures eased which should be welcome news for the RBNZ. Capacity pressures also moderated further.
NZ ANZ business confidence vs activity outlook
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
- Inflation expectations fell to 3.6% from 3.8%, the lowest since October 2021. Pricing intentions were also around 5 points lower at 41.6 to be the lowest since December 2020 but ANZ says it is still too high. Cost expectations are elevated and sticky but moderated 4 points to 72.6. Wage expectations for the coming year eased to 2.8% from 3.0%.
NZ ANZ business price/costs
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
- Past activity is signalling positive Q1 GDP growth but a softer Q2.
- In line with other data showing a weakening of the labour market, employment intentions fell 6 points to -6.9 in May driven by the retail sector.
- Profits expectations and export & investment intentions all deteriorated.
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