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Demand Outlook Troubling Crude Ahead Of Expected Fed Hike

OIL

After falling 1.3% on Monday, oil prices are stable today and trading in a narrow range. Brent is up 0.1% to $79.40/bbl and WTI stable around $75.77, both are just off intraday highs. The USD index is down slightly.

  • Ahead of the Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday, crude markets continue to focus on demand uncertainties. The FOMC is expected to hike rates another 25bp and then possibly signal that it will pause (see MNI Fed Preview: May 2023). A more dovish tone to the statement would help to calm some fears re a US recession. While, China’s recovery doesn’t seem uniform with industrial data lacklustre but retail and travel trends robust.
  • Later today US JOLTS job openings and factory orders for March print. Also April manufacturing PMIs in Europe and preliminary April euro area CPI data are released.
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