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Dented Sentiment Prompts AUD/USD to Resume Downleg

FOREX
  • A risk-off feel was evident from the European open, with growth and risk-proxies including NZD and AUD flagging in favour of USD and JPY. There was no specific catalyst for the risk-off, but a confluence of factors from lockdown extensions in the Eurozone, heightened vaccine protectionism and concern over New Zealand's tempering of house price growth that weighed from the off.
  • The downtick in risk sentiment as well as the NZD resulted in AUD/USD resuming the downleg from the February high, narrowing the gap with early March lows as well as the 100-dma support at 0.7610.
  • Greenback strength put the USD index on track for a test of the March highs at 92.503. A break above here opens the 200-dma resistance crossing at 92.672.
  • UK inflation and prelim March Eurozone & UK PMI data take focus Wednesday. Most metrics are seen broadly inline with February's turnout, indicating continued modest growth across manufacturing, but a still flagging services sector. ECB's Lagarde speaks, but on the topic of climate change, not policy.
  • From the US, durable goods orders and speeches from Fed's Barkin, Powell, Williams, Daly and Evans are due.
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