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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis suspended his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination on 21 Jan following a poor performance in the Iowa caucuses, with the one-time betting market favourite for the nomination stating that he did not "have a clear path to victory". DeSantis endorsed frontrunner and presumptive nominee Donald Trump during his withdrawal speech. The former president is given a 90.1% implied probability of winning the nomination, compared to just 7.1% for the only other remaining candidate, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.
- New Hampshire holds its presidential primary on 23 Jan, and is seen as essential for the effective continuation of Haley's campaign. The more moderate and independent-minded voters of the granite state are seen as some of the most likely to back Haley, but a distant second place to Trump could effectively halt her efforts.
- The primary risk to Trump's path to the nomination now comes not from Haley, but the various legal battles he faces at the state and federal level. The Supreme Court will hear arguments on8 Feb relating to rulings in Colorado and Maine that seek to remove Trump from the ballot under the 14th amendment to the US Constitution that could have significant implications on Trump's ability to run for the nomination.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Republican Presidential Nomination, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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