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COLOMBIA: Deutsche Bank Expect BanRep Easing to Resume in March

COLOMBIA
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  • Deutsche Bank continue to pencil in a moderate acceleration of growth in Colombia to 2.3% in 2025. The statistical carryover for 2025 stands at around 0.7% should output remain steady at the average level recorded in Q4 and 1.2% if it remains at the level recorded in the December ISE.
  • DB believe consumer spending will likely become the primary growth driver, supported by low unemployment, declining inflation and rising confidence. Fixed investment, which has yet to recover from its recent slump, could also continue to contribute to bolster activity, aided by improving credit conditions. However, the bank do caveat that headwinds remain, including a continued fiscal drag and persistent policy uncertainty.
  • The continued disinflationary process, along with a dovish shift in the composition of BanRep’s board, continue to underpin DB’s expectation that after the January pause, rate cuts will resume in the next meeting scheduled for March 31.
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  • Deutsche Bank continue to pencil in a moderate acceleration of growth in Colombia to 2.3% in 2025. The statistical carryover for 2025 stands at around 0.7% should output remain steady at the average level recorded in Q4 and 1.2% if it remains at the level recorded in the December ISE.
  • DB believe consumer spending will likely become the primary growth driver, supported by low unemployment, declining inflation and rising confidence. Fixed investment, which has yet to recover from its recent slump, could also continue to contribute to bolster activity, aided by improving credit conditions. However, the bank do caveat that headwinds remain, including a continued fiscal drag and persistent policy uncertainty.
  • The continued disinflationary process, along with a dovish shift in the composition of BanRep’s board, continue to underpin DB’s expectation that after the January pause, rate cuts will resume in the next meeting scheduled for March 31.