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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SOUTH AFRICA
- Deutsche Bank said financial markets were now fully pricing 25bp of tightening by November and almost 250bp of hikes by end-22 from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), which was the most in many years.
- Ongoing upside surprises to global inflation prints and as a response more hawkish emerging market (EM) central banks, had put South Africa on the list as the next country to "pull the trigger" and deliver an aggressive hiking cycle, added Deutsche Bank.
- 3x6 FRA-Jibar 3m spreads rose notably in September, and accelerated in October to +40.7bp from a low of +16.3bp at the end of August – spurred on by higher oil prices. At its last meeting the SARB reiterated that short-term risks to CPI were to the upside – highlighting the possibility of upside CPI revisions on higher oil prices.
- Nevertheless, Gov Kganyago reiterated a focus on medium-term disinflationary factors with 2022-2023 average CPI well anchored around 4.2-4.5%, close to the midpoint of the 3-6% range.
- This makes the November meeting a make or break event that will be watched very closely for a reactive hike – with the next key focal point being September CPI & PPI towards the end of the month.
3x6 FRA-Jibar 3m Spread
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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