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Deutsche Bank Says BRL More Attractive Than Rates
- Deutsche Bank believe that heightened uncertainty about global fiscal policy and inconsistent domestic policy goals will resolve with lower growth, which will leave room for cuts over the next year, favouring 1Y receivers. Although the curve prices in gradual inversion, DB believe that debt crisis risk is more front-loaded, which will benefit front-end flatteners. Meanwhile, tighter financial conditions favour further BRL retracement, in their view. These positions would naturally suffer from additional fiscal setbacks – the main risk factor for all markets.
- Deutsche Bank believe that fundamentally, the BRL seems more attractive than rates. It is undervalued vs. fundamentals, it has been the laggard across EM FX and it benefits from a more hawkish monetary policy and persistent trade surpluses. The main headwind has been capital outflows.
- With reserves high, CAD below 1.5% of GDP, and tight monetary policy, the main tail risk for the BRL is debt monetisation. While current fiscal policy is inconsistent with sustainability, monetising the debt seems by far the most difficult policy option to pursue: It is very regressive, and it would be devastating for the banking and pension systems.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.