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Free AccessDeutsche: Little Here To Tighten Spreads
Deutsche Bank (A1, A) 1Q24 results don’t look like a major spread-mover but there is a lot of expectation built into asset prices in the run to these results, we feel. NPL news is weaker than at Dec-23 but not unexpected – still these appear negative for Commerz, DePfa and Aareal.
- Key credit metrics: CET1 is marginally below consensus (13.4% vs. 13.7%), in part due to full pre-deduction of the equity buyback. Loan losses are 37bp of loans, marginally better than consensus and 4Q23’s run-rate but non-performers are weaker. NPLs are up 30bp from Dec-23 (to 3.1%) with both personal and CRE lending specifically referenced. This is a negative lateral for Commerzbank, Aareal, DePfa.
- Wider view: revenues are marginally ahead of consensus with weak NII (negative for CMZB) offset by positive trading income. The investment bank was the only division to beat revenue estimates. FICC was +7% and beat estimates. Group costs were slightly weaker than expected and net profit was 4% ahead of consensus.
- Outlook: loan losses look to be at the top end of the guidance range, which is a minor downgrade to expectations but, otherwise, most major targets unchanged. Questions around the domestic and CRE non-performers appear likely on the call, we feel.
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