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Deutsche: March Will Be The Y/Y CPI Peak

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Deutsche sees headline CPI coming in a little above consensus (+1.30% vs +1.2% BBG survey and +0.80% prior), but core slipping to an in-line +0.47% (+0.5% BBG survey and +0.51% prior).

  • The headline/core difference is largely on a +20% M/M rise in gas prices.
  • But "barring further severe disruptions, the March release is likely to be the peak in terms of year-over-year rates for both headline and core given that the base effects from last year's surge in used car prices will begin rolling off in the April data."
  • Deutsche is looking closely at rents (seen +0.6% M/M for primary, +0.5% OER) and mixed vehicle prices (new cars +0.4%, but used cars -0.8% given lower wholesale prices, with further declines coming).

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