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Deutsche: No Mention Of Soft June Data; JPM:  "Range Of Views" Noted (1/2)

FED
Selected sell-side analyst comments on the July FOMC:
  • BofA: The overall policy communication appeared neutral. "Balance" in the press conference was mentioned 13x in July, 9x in June, and 7x in May.
  • Deutsche: While the Fed could have taken the opportunity to acknowledge the soft June CPI data in the statement, only one data point of progress along this dimension is clearly much too tentative for the Fed to alter their views around inflation, which was reinforced by Powell's comments in the press conference.
  • JPMorgan: The data dependence of the policy outlook was clear, but at several points it appeared as though Powell was biased toward being patient and leaving policy on hold in a restrictive stance. Somewhat surprisingly, some on the Committee may already see risks as balanced; Powell said there were “a range of views about what we should do at this meeting,” in contrast to the unanimous vote. He openly discussed the cuts that the dots are projecting next year, something that in the past he’s been wary of embracing.
  • Mizuho: The key to Powell’s discussion around rate cuts (as per the SEP) is that the Fed will “need to see further softening in labor market conditions” to be sure sustainable 2% inflation is in the pipeline. As an aside, Powell did mention in passing going “below a neutral level at some point”, but this comment should be faded—it is not what is in the SEP, and of course, it is a statement of the obvious reality that at some point the Fed may need to run an accommodative policy in the face of a severe recession.
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