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Deutsche Ups Terminal Rate Call To 5.6% On Limited Disinflation Progress

FED

Deutsche Bank analysts have upped their call for the Fed terminal rate to 5.6% from 5.1% previously, now expecting hikes through July.

  • This comes after yesterday's CPI reading showing limited progress toward disinflation - which adds to other factors such as a resilient labor market and a lack of tightening financial conditions.
  • "These developments support our base case for a recession rather than a soft landing" but the timing of the recession start could be Q4 rather than the Q3 they currently expect, meaning the first Fed cut could slip into 2024 vs Dec 2023.
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