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Deutsche: Watch Hotels, Airfares, Used Cars, And Rents

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Deutsche sees headline and core CPI coming in identically in January's print, at +0.36% unrounded for each. This would represent Y/Y rates of 7.2% and 5.8% respectively and are on the soft side of consensus.

  • They see "roughly flat" gas prices and a "solid print in food", with "the biggest wild cards...lodging away and airfares given the omicron wave".
  • On that note, Deutsche sees seasonal factors adding additional uncertainty, as non-SA prices in those categories tend to increase from Dec to Jan, "so any omicron related shortfall in demand could be magnified relative to August."
  • They are also looking closely at used vehicle (expecting prices to begin to subside with the Jan release) and and rent prices (seeing +0.4% for OER and primary rents, similar to Dec).
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