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Deutsche: Watch Prime Age Participation

US OUTLOOK/OPINION

Deutsche expects October payrolls growth to come in just below consensus, at +400k, while they are in-line with median expectations on the unemp rate (4.7%) and average hourly earnings (+0.4%).

  • The headline figure includes +350k private payrolls, and a +50k gov't number implying a rebound in state and local education hiring "which was somewhat depressed by the seasonal factor last month."
  • They also expect leisure/hospitality/retail to make up the majority of gains.
  • Deutsche are paying special attention to the prime age labor force participation rate (25-54 year olds), which in September reversed recent gains, and which some Fed officials are eyeing before gaining confidence on the employment mandate.
  • That figure was 81.6% in September - "more dovish-leaning officials may want to see at least 50bps to 100bps of improvement before gaining confidence".
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