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DI Swaps Curve Rises Following Minutes/Inflation Data

BRAZIL
  • There has been a shift higher in the DI swaps curve today, with yields approximately 6-9bp higher across much of the curve, and the 1-2year segment underperforming.
  • Earlier, the Copom minutes highlighted the committee’s need for greater policy flexibility due to the change in uncertainty, as well as the potential for a slower pace of easing ahead, if uncertainty remains elevated. Although marginal, the minutes convey a more explicitly hawkish lean to the statement.
  • Furthermore, mid-March IPCA figures registered higher than surveyed estimates which has entirely offset the more optimistic adjustments for inflation expectations within the Focus survey. Although not a large upward surprise, it plays into the theme of uncertainty provided earlier by the Copom.
  • Additionally, Minister of Institutional Relations Padilha’s remarks earlier are also a reminder of the country’s ongoing fiscal risks.
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