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DIESEL: China Diesel Consumption May Fall on Logistics & Infrastructure Spending

DIESEL

China’s diesel consumption may fall 5.6% y/y in H2 2024 to 107.2m tons, after a 4.2% drop in H1 2024, according to OilChem cited by Bloomberg.

  • Diesel inventories are still “seasonally high” after growing 1.5m tons in H1, despite recent refinery production restraint.
  • Lower demand in H2 to be driven by weaker logistics and infrastructure spending, reducing consumption 5m tons y/y
  • Displacement from LNG trucks, new energy trucks and new energy-powered commercial vehicles is expected to replace about 20% of demand in H2.
  • Demand from mining and infrastructure fell over 10% in H1 while the logistics sector fell 3.16% due to displacement from new energy.
  • China diesel exports may fall 14% y/y to 4.7m tons in the second half of this year as facilities balance inventories, low diesel yields and export profits.
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