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Diesel Margins Resume Rally Supported by Supply Concern

OIL PRODUCTS

Diesel margins have resumed the rally from late last week supported by supply concerns from the refinery strikes in France. Spreads have pushed higher from a dip this morning with prices following the recovery from the broader oil market.

  • The US New York Harbour area is exporting diesel to Europe in a reversal to typical flows with Europe seeking replacement supplies following Russia sanctions in early Feb and with French strikes disrupting European supplies since early March. The flows are the first substantial US export to Europe since March 2022.
  • Near term backwardation in Nymex diesel futures and European Gasoil futures is the strongest since November.
  • Weak US demand and recovering stocks levels in US have enabled flows to Europe although distillate stocks in the US Central Atlantic region are still 21% below normal.
  • Loadings of clean fuels from Asia to the Americas for March rose by 200k tons from the previous week to 600k tons with the additions primarily for diesel according to Bloomberg data.
    • US 321 crack up 0.9$/bbl at 41.74$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0.7$/bbl at 38.91$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 1.2$/bbl at 47.39$/bbl
    • EU Gasoline-Brent up 0.7$/bbl at 20.3$/bbl
    • EU Gasoil-Brent up 0.9$/bbl at 27.18$/bbl
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