Diesel Stocks Building Ahead of EU Ban on Russian Supply

Diesel inventories in Europe are increasing ahead of the upcoming ban on Russian supplies.

• Inventories will reach 215mbbls before falling next year to lowest since at least 2011 according to a forecast from Wood Mackenzie. The expected build is slightly lower than previously forecast due to falling refining margins.
• They expected supplies in March to be the tightest month following the EU ban on Russian seaborne imports into Europe from Feb 5 while also the northwest Europe seasonal demand peak.
• Refinery processing in northwest Europe was estimated at 6.1mbpd in November and is forecast to increase to 6.16mbpd in December.
• Data released this week showed increasing global stock levels with European ARA Gasoil stocks up to 17% below the five year average for the time of year, US distillates stocks 8% below but Singapore Middle Distillates are still 36% below.
  • EU Gasoline-Brent up 0$/bbl at 0.36$/bbl
  • EU Gasoil-Brent down -1.3$/bbl at 31.77$/bbl
  • US gasoline crack down -0.4$/bbl at 14.2$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.5$/bbl at 48.31$/bbl