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Digesting CBRT Shenanigans

TRY

USD/TRY has continued to chew into its initial gains and last trades at TRY8.0720, ~8,550 pips higher on the day. Familiar technical levels remain in play, a clean breach of the TRY8.0000 figure would open up Mar 9 high of TRY7.7839.

  • USD/TRY overnight ATM implied volatility surged to 39.37% (four-month high), but has moderated and now sits at 26.75%.
  • Meanwhile, 1-week implied volatility has slid to worst levels in almost a month and last sits at 16.75%.
Fig. 1: USD/TRY

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg


TRY/JPY has pared some of its initial losses and last trades ~1.5730 fig. lower at Y13.4918. Bulls look for a continued recovery past Mar 8 low/round figure of Y13.9845/14.0000. Conversely, bears look for a dip through Nov 10 low of Y12.5205, towards the key Nov 6 low of Y12.039.

  • TRY/JPY overnight ATM implied volatility skyrocketed to levels last seen on Sep 3, 2018. It last sits at 82.21%.
  • 1-week implied volatility shot higher to one-year highs, it last sits at 46.92%.
Fig. 2: TRY/JPY

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg


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