MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Stocks Hold Bullish Tone
MNI (LONDON) - Price Signal Summary – Stocks Hold Bullish Theme as Resistance Cleared
- The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish. Resistance at 5430.75, the May 23 high and bull trigger, has recently been cleared. This break confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. The move higher this week confirms a recent bull flag formation on the daily scale. Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded higher this week. Attention is on resistance at 5039.84, 61.8% retracement of the May 16 - Jun 14 sell-off. Clearance of this level would be a positive development and suggest scope for an extension of the bull cycle that started Jun 14.
- GBPUSD is holding on to this week’s gains. The move higher undermines the recent bearish theme and highlights a potential short-term reversal. Resistance at 1.2740, the Jun 19 high, has been cleared. The break of this hurdle is a bullish development. The trend in USDJPY remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The recent breach of key resistance at 160.17, the Apr 29 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. A bull mode in AUDUSD remains intact. A strong rally this week resulted in a break of a key short-term resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high. The move higher highlights a range breakout and confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 19.
- Gold has traded higher but, price remains inside a range - for now. A bear threat is present and the sell-off on Jun 7 reinforced a S/T bearish theme. Price has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 2322.2. A bull cycle in WTI futures remains in play and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The recent breach of $80.11, the May 29 high and a key resistance, strengthened a bullish theme. Note too that $82.24, 76.4% of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 bear leg, has been cleared.
- Bund futures remain in a bear mode condition and the contract is trading just above its recent lows. The move lower this week undermines a recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch is 130.28. Gilt futures traded sharply lower Monday, confirming an extension of the latest bear cycle. Despite Wednesday’s gains, the short-term outlook remains bearish. The sell-off signals scope for a continuation near-term towards 96.25, a Fibonacci retracement.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 1.0943 High Jan 21
- RES 3: 1.0916 High Jun 04 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.0852 High Jun 12
- RES 1: 1.0825 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.0822 @ 05:59 BST Jul 5
- SUP 1: 1.0755/0666 20-day EMA / Low Jun 26 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.0650 Low May 1
- SUP 3: 1.0601 Low Apr 16 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.0568 Low Nov 2
A bullish theme in EURUSD remains in play. The pair is again trading higher as it extends this week’s recovery. The move above 1.0772, the 50-day EMA, undermines the recent bearish theme and instead signals scope for further gains with the focus on 1.0852 next, the Jun 12 high. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the bear trigger at 1.0666, the Jun 26 low. Initial support to watch lies at 1.0755, the 20-day EMA.
GBPUSD TECHS: Holding On To This Week’s Gains
- RES 4: 1.2947 1.50 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
- RES 3: 1.2908 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
- RES 2: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 1.2777/2860 High Jul 3 / High Jun 12 and bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.2767 @ 06:17 BST Jul 5
- SUP 1: 1.2676/13 50-day EMA / Low June 27
- SUP 2: 1.2584 Low May 15
- SUP 3: 1.2514 61.8% retracement of the Apr 22 - Jun 12 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.2446 Low May 9 and a key near-term support
GBPUSD is holding on to this week’s gains. The move higher undermines the recent bearish theme and highlights a potential short-term reversal. Resistance at 1.2740, the Jun 19 high, has been cleared. The break of this hurdle is a bullish development and opens 1.2860, the Jun 12 high and a key resistance. Key support has been defined at 1.2613, the Jun 27 low. A break of this level is required to resume the recent bear leg.
EURGBP TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.8586 76.4% retracement of the Apr 23 - Jun 14 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.8568 High May 20
- RES 2: 0.8551 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 1: 0.8499 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8476 @ 06:30 BST Jul 5
- SUP 1: 0.8431 Low Jun 25
- SUP 2: 0.8397 Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022
- SUP 4: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing
EURGBP continues to trade below an important resistance at 0.8499, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this average is required to undermine the current bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. Gains since Jun 14 appear to be a correction. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8431, the Jun 25 low. A reversal lower and a break of this support would open 0.8397, the Jun 14 low and bear trigger.
USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 163.96 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 163.36 2.00 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
- RES 2: 162.21 1.764 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
- RES 1: 161.95 High Jul 3
- PRICE: 160.70 @ 06:47 BST Jul 5
- SUP 1: 159.51 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 157.60 Trendline support drawn from Dec 28 low
- SUP 3: 157.37 /154.55 50-day EMA / Low Jun 4
- SUP 4: 153.60 Low May 16
The trend in USDJPY remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The recent breach of key resistance at 160.17, the Apr 29 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and the bullish follow through since, reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting a rising trend. Sights are on 162.21, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 159.51.
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 175.96 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 175.40 1.50 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
- RES 2: 174.77 1.382 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
- RES 1: 174.52 High Jul 03
- PRICE: 173.82 @ 07:10 BST Jul 05
- SUP 1: 173.09/172.28 Low Jul 2 / 1
- SUP 2: 171.55 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 169.55/167.53 Trendline from the Dec 7 ‘23 low / Low Jun 14
- SUP 4: 167.33 Low May 16
The EURJPY trend structure is unchanged, it remains bullish and this week’s gains reinforce the bullish theme. The recent break of a key resistance and bull trigger at 171.56, the Apr 29 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, and this highlights a clear rising trend. Sights are on 174.77, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support is at 171.55, the 20-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Breakout
- RES 4: 0.6839 High Jan 2
- RES 3: 0.6771 High Jan 3
- RES 2: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.6739 Intraday high
- PRICE: 0.6732 @ 08:02 BST Jul 05
- SUP 1: 0.6660 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6630 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.6576 Low Jun 10 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6558 Low May 8
A bull mode in AUDUSD remains intact. A strong rally this week resulted in a break of a key short-term resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high. The move higher highlights a range breakout and confirms a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 19. This paves the way for a climb towards 0.6751, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. Initial firm support is at 0.6626, the 50-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Maintains This Week’s Bear Cycle
- RES 4: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
- RES 2: 1.3755/3792 High Jul 2 / High Jun 11
- RES 1: 1.3675 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3608 @ 08:07 BST Jul 5
- SUP 1: 1.3590 Low May 16 and a key support
- SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
- SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4
This week’s sell-off in USDCAD strengthens a short-term bearish threat. Note that price has again breached the 50-day EMA - currently at 1.3675. This reinforces bearish conditions and has also resulted in a print below 1.3590, May 16 low. An extension would expose 1.3590, the May 16 low and key support. The medium-term trend outlook is bullish, initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3755, the Jul 2 high. A break of this level would be bullish.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (U4) Bear Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 133.21 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 132.80 High Jun 25
- RES 2: 132.24 High Jun 28
- RES 1: 131.62 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 130.67 @ 05:36 BST Jul 5
- SUP 1: 130.28/23 76.4% of May 31 - Jun 14 rally / Low Jul 3
- SUP 2: 129.52 Low Jun 10
- SUP 3: 129.37 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 129.00 Round number support
Bund futures remain in a bear mode condition and the contract is trading just above its recent lows. The move lower this week undermines a recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch is 130.28, a Fibonacci retracement. It has been pierced, a clear break would further strengthen a bearish threat. Initial firm resistance is at 132.24, the Jun 28 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a potential reversal.
BOBL TECHS: (U4) Bearish Theme
- RES 4: 117.160 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 116.920 High Jun 24
- RES 3: 116.690 High Jun 28
- RES 1: 116.227 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 115.870 @ 05:50 BST Jul 5
- SUP 1: 115.700 Low Jul 3
- SUP 2: 115.556 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 14 rally
- SUP 3: 115.180 Low Jun 10
- SUP 4: 115.060 Low May 31 and key support
Bobl futures are unchanged and the contract is trading closer to its latest lows. A bearish condition remains in place. The move down this week resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and this undermines a recent bearish threat, signalling scope for a deeper pullback towards 115.556, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would further strengthen a bearish threat. Initial firm resistance to watch is 116.690, the Jun 28 high.
SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Maintains A Softer Tone
- RES 4: 106.009 2.382 proj of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
- RES 3: 105.975 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 105.895 High Jun 21
- RES 1: 105.589/105.780 20-day EMA / High Jun 28
- PRICE: 105.480 @ 05:50 BST Jul 5
- SUP 1: 105.440 61.8% retracement of the May 24 Jun 14 bull cycle
- SUP 2: 105.375 Low Jun 13
- SUP 3: 105.314 76.4% retracement of the May 24 Jun 14 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 105.175 Low Jun 7
Schatz futures remain bearish following this week’s breach of support around the 20-day EMA, at 105.589. The move down undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. A continuation lower would open 105.314, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would strengthen a developing bearish threat. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 105.780, the Jun 28 high. A break would be bullish.
GILT TECHS: (U4) Bear Threat Still Present Despite A Bounce
- RES 4: 100.00 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 99.62 1.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
- RES 2: 98.24/99.25 High Jun 28 / 1.236 proj May 29-Jun 4-10 swing
- RES 1: 97.78 High Jul 3
- PRICE: 97.34 @ Close Jul 4
- SUP 1: 96.57 Low Jul 1
- SUP 2: 96.25 76.4% retracement of the May 29 - Jun 21 bull run
- SUP 3: 96.12 Low Jun 10
- SUP 4: 95.33 Low May 29 and a key support
Gilt futures traded sharply lower Monday, confirming an extension of the latest bear cycle. Despite Wednesday’s gains, the short-term outlook remains bearish. The sell-off signals scope for a continuation near-term towards 96.25, a Fibonacci retracement, where a break would further strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 98.24, the Jun 28 high. Clearance of this level would be seen as a bullish development.
BTP TECHS: (U4) Watching Resistance
- RES 4: 119.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 118.58 High May 16 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 117.62 High Jun 5 and key resistance
- RES 1: 116.53/117.09 50-day EMA / High Jun 21
- PRICE: 115.87 @ Close Jul 4
- SUP 1: 114.72/35 Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 11 and key support
- SUP 2: 114.02 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 113.60 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
- SUP 4: 112.77 61.8% of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 2023 rally (cont)
BTP futures have recovered from Tuesday’s 114.72 low. The bear reversal from the Jun 5 high resulted in a break of key support at 115.54, Apr 25 low, and this continues to highlight a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 114.35, the Jun 11 low, where a breach would strengthen a bearish theme. Key resistance is 117.62, the Jun 5 high. Clearance of this level would be bullish. Initial firm resistance to watch is 117.09, the Jun 21 high.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Continues To Climb
- RES 4: 5151.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 5132.00 High Jun 6
- RES 2: 5092.00 High Jun 12
- RES 1: 5039.84 61.8% retracement of the May 16 - Jun 14 sell-off
- PRICE: 5030.00 @ 06:08 BST Jul 5
- SUP 1: 4903.00/4860.00 Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 4846.00 Low Apr 19 and a key support
- SUP 3: 4800.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 4785.40 2.236 proj of the May 16 - Jun 4 - 6 price swing
Eurostoxx 50 futures have traded higher this week. Attention is on resistance at 5039.84, 61.8% retracement of the May 16 - Jun 14 sell-off. Clearance of this level would be a positive development and suggest scope for an extension of the bull cycle that started Jun 14. This would open 5082.32, the 76.4% retracement point. On the downside, a reversal would refocus attention on 4846.00, Apr 19 low and a key support.
E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Fresh All-Time High
- RES 4: 5668.00 3.00 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
- RES 3: 5622.69 2.764 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
- RES 2: 5600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 5597.00 Intraday high
- PRICE: 5596.50 @ 07:22 BST Jul 5
- SUP 1: 5505.46/5411.41 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 5267.75 Low May 31 and key support
- SUP 3: 5213.25 Low May 6
- SUP 4: 5155.75 Low May 3
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish. Resistance at 5430.75, the May 23 high and bull trigger, has recently been cleared. This break confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. The move higher this week confirms a recent bull flag formation on the daily scale. This is a continuation pattern and reinforces bullish conditions. Sights are on the 5600.00 handle. Support to watch is 5505.46, the 20-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (U4) Heading North
- RES 4: $91.99 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 3: $90.23 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
- RES 2: $89.32 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $88.04 - High Apr 19
- PRICE: $87.15 @ 07:08 BST Jul 5
- SUP 1: $83.47 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $79.05/76.66 - Low Jun 7 / 4
- SUP 3: $75.31 - Low Feb 5
- SUP 4: $73.37 - Low Dec 13 and a key support
The trend condition in Brent futures remains bullish and the contract is holding on to this week's gains. Fresh cycle highs maintain the current bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows, signalling scope for an extension towards $89.32, the Apr 12 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this level would be seen as an important medium-term bullish development. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is $83.47, the 50-day EMA.
WTI TECHS: (Q4) Key Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: $90.78 - High Oct 20 2023 (cont)
- RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
- RES 2: $85.27 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $84.38 - High Jul 2
- PRICE: $83.66 @ 07:17 BST Jul 5
- SUP 1: $79.37 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $74.94/72.44 - Low Jun 10 / 4
- SUP 3: $71.05 - Low Feb 5
- SUP 4: $69.22 - Low Dec 13 ‘23 and a key support
A bull cycle in WTI futures remains in play and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The recent breach of $80.11, the May 29 high and a key resistance, strengthened a bullish theme. Note too that $82.24, 76.4% of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 bear leg, has been cleared. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up too. Sights are on $85.27, the Apr 12 high and a bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch is $79.37, the 50-day EMA.
GOLD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: $2481.5 - 2.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 3: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 2: $2450.1 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $2387.8 - High Jun 7
- PRICE: $2365.00 @ 07:22 BST Jul 5
- SUP 1: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7
- SUP 2: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
- SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28
- SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support
Gold has traded higher but, price remains inside a range - for now. A bear threat is present and the sell-off on Jun 7 reinforced a S/T bearish theme. Price has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 2322.2. A clear break of this average would confirm a resumption of the reversal from May 20 and open $2277.4, May 3 low. Initial firm resistance is $2387.8, Jun 7 high. A clear break would be a bullish development. Key resistance is at $2450.1, the May 20 high.
SILVER TECHS: Remains Above Its Recent Lows
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
- RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
- RES 2: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
- RES 1: $30.853/32.518 - High May 20 and bull trigger / High Jun 21
- PRICE: $30.615 @ 08:12 BST Jul 5
- SUP 1: $28.573- Low Jun 26
- SUP 2: $27.971 - Low May 13
- SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
- SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
Silver has recovered from its recent lows. Support at $28.659, Jun 13 low and a bear trigger, has recently been pierced. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme and open $27.971, May 13 low. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode set-up. This highlights a M/T uptrend and suggests that the bear leg since $32.518, the May 20 high, is likely a correction. First resistance to watch is $30.853, the Jun 21 high. A break would be a bullish development.