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Free AccessDigesting Hawkish Surprise From Bank Indonesia
Spot USD/IDR last trades +12 figs at IDR15,029, having recouped opening losses. If yesterday's peak (IDR15,040) gives way, bulls will target May 5, 2020 high of IDR15,138. Bears look for losses towards Sep 12 low/100-DMA at IDR14,818/14,806.
- USD/IDR 1-month NDF last -3 figs at IDR15,055. Downside focus falls on the 100-DMA at IDR14,835, while bulls seek to force a move through Jul 21 high of IDR15,133.
- Bank Indonesia raised the 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate by 50bp Thursday, as forecast by just 7 out of 37 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, with the rest expecting a 25bp rate rise. The decision was taken "as a front-loaded, pre-emptive and forward-looking measure to lower inflation expectations and return core inflation to the 3.0%±1% target corridor in the latter half of 2023, while simultaneously strengthening exchange rate stabilisation policy." The second consecutive hawkish surprise coupled with rhetoric emphasising the Bank's forward-looking approach signals determination to crack down on above-forecast inflation, albeit Gov Warjiyo said that "more aggressive rate hikes are not needed in Indonesia."
- Offshore investors bought a net $55.60mn in local stocks Thursday, while the Jakarta Comp finished ~0.4% higher. The index has slipped this morning and last deals ~0.2% shy of neutral levels.
- Palm oil futures remain heavy, with the contract for December delivery last MYR73/MT below neutral levels, even as BBG Commodity Index is little changed.
- Indonesia's economic docket is virtually empty during the next week.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.