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Spot USD/PHP last changes hands at PHP50.321, virtually unchanged on the day, with domestic focus falling on the latest comments from BSP Gov Diokno. Bears look for a retreat under Jul 23 low of PHP50.085 towards Jul 13 low of PHP49.940, while bulls need a clearance of Jul 19 high of PHP50.496 before targeting May 28/22, 2020 highs of PHP50.770/50.795.
- USD/PHP 1-month NDF last seen +0.120 at PHP50.430, with bulls looking for a jump above Jul 27 high of PHP50.730, before taking aim at Jul 19 high of PHP51.390. Bears keep an eye on Jul 22/13 lows of PHP50.140/50.100.
- BSP Gov Diokno reiterated that Bangko Sentral is committed to a flexible FX policy, as a market-driven exchange rate can serve as a buffer against external shocks. Diokno said that the peso's depreciation is in line with regional dynamics, while the currency will draw support from foreign remittances and outsourcing revenue.
- Fitch said that household spending in the Philippines is expected to grow 5.1% in 2022, after rising 4.0% this year. They noted that "a full recovery of Philippines' consumer and retail sector will only take place in 2022, with conventional growth returning in 2023."
- Philippine bank lending data may hit the wires over the coming days, but there is no fixed time of the release. Next week's highlights include unemployment (Tuesday), CPI (Thursday) & trade balance (Friday).
- Ahead of the release of inflation data next week, BSP's Diokno said that the central bank expects headline CPI to settle within the +3.9%-4.7% Y/Y range this month, while the point inflation forecast is +4.3% Y/Y. Bangko Sentral see higher prices of petroleum products and key food items as key sources of upward price pressure.
- Meanwhile, Philippine PPI fell 2.5% Y/Y in June, according to the latest update from the Philippine Statistics Authority, after a revised 4.1% decline recorded in May.
Fig. 1. Philippine PPI For Total Manufacturing