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Disagreements Rise Between CNB and Finance Ministry Over Policy Outlook

CZECHIA
  • Candidates running for the lower chamber of Czech parliament in general elections next month are scheduled to debate public finances and other issue in a televised debate this evening (BBG).
  • Yesterday, policymakers Benda mentioned in an interview that a bigger hike was possible at the September meeting.
  • We have seen in recent weeks that policymakers' tone has turned more hawkish following the positive surprise in inflation in August, with CNB now expected to raise the policy rate by 50bps on September 30.
  • This was not supported by the Ministry of Finance after FinMin Alena Schillerova recently urged CNB not to raise interest rates as it would increase the borrowing costs and weaken the investment needed to help the economy recover from the pandemic.
  • This week, another member Holub said that he will 'quite likely' vote for a 50bps rate hike in September.
  • Four of the central bank's seven members (including Governor Rusnok) are likely to vote for a 50bps hike on September 30.
  • At 2pm, CNB is expected to announce board members' attendance at Sept. 30 policy meeting.
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