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GS Below Consensus For Payrolls, Potential AHE Upside

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Disappointing data as services, manuf and composite all below 50

GERMAN DATA
  • Outside of employment, the underlying details of the disappointing German PMI prints were also weak (manufacturing, services and composite prints all falling below 50). Price pressures are easing a bit, but expectations for the future are being hit too
  • "Declines in both domestic and export demand was indicated by the latest data as a combination of an uncertain business environment, supply shortages and stretched client budgets weighed on the sector. Expectations about the future sank into negative territory for the first time since May 2020, the height of the first wave of the COVID pandemic."
  • "Sales in the service sector declined for a second successive month and to the sharpest degree since February 2021. With manufacturers registering an even sharper fall in new orders – the biggest since May 2020 – the decline at the composite level was a 26-month record."
  • "Cost pressures remain elevated. Prices paid for energy and commodities, a weaker euro as well as rising interest rates and higher wages reported in services, meant that overall input costs rose substantially. That said, inflation did maintain its recent downward trend, dropping to a sixmonth low. Costs in manufacturing continued to rise at a quicker rate than in services, despite inflation here dropping to its lowest in nearly a year-and-a-half."
  • "average prices charged for goods and services also rose at a slower rate (weakest in five months),"
  • "Employment growth held broadly steady at a solid rate as firms sought to keep on top of workloads. Overall, backlogs of work were subsequently little changed compared to June"
253 words

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  • Outside of employment, the underlying details of the disappointing German PMI prints were also weak (manufacturing, services and composite prints all falling below 50). Price pressures are easing a bit, but expectations for the future are being hit too
  • "Declines in both domestic and export demand was indicated by the latest data as a combination of an uncertain business environment, supply shortages and stretched client budgets weighed on the sector. Expectations about the future sank into negative territory for the first time since May 2020, the height of the first wave of the COVID pandemic."
  • "Sales in the service sector declined for a second successive month and to the sharpest degree since February 2021. With manufacturers registering an even sharper fall in new orders – the biggest since May 2020 – the decline at the composite level was a 26-month record."
  • "Cost pressures remain elevated. Prices paid for energy and commodities, a weaker euro as well as rising interest rates and higher wages reported in services, meant that overall input costs rose substantially. That said, inflation did maintain its recent downward trend, dropping to a sixmonth low. Costs in manufacturing continued to rise at a quicker rate than in services, despite inflation here dropping to its lowest in nearly a year-and-a-half."
  • "average prices charged for goods and services also rose at a slower rate (weakest in five months),"
  • "Employment growth held broadly steady at a solid rate as firms sought to keep on top of workloads. Overall, backlogs of work were subsequently little changed compared to June"