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Dispersion Metrics Show Narrowing In Breadth Of M/M Price Pressures

US DATA
  • Dispersion metrics showed a narrowing in the breadth of price pressures in March, not too surprising with supercore strength concentrated in a few items.
  • Again, they can be noisy from month-to-month but our estimated share of the CPI basket growing faster than 3% annualized on the month was 46% (from 53% in Feb and 58% in Jan, vs 2019 av 42%) whilst the share >5% fell to 33% (from 44% and 49% in Jan, vs 2019 av 25%).
  • Similarly, the share seeing outright deflation on the month increased from 33% to 42% (2019 av 38%).
  • This is based on a narrow basket covering 57 items taken predominantly at index level 4.
  • Separately, a more granular look across 192 items showed a stalling in the share of items seeing inflation faster than 3% Y/Y at 38%. This measure averaged 24% in 2019 and ~20% in 2015-19.
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  • Dispersion metrics showed a narrowing in the breadth of price pressures in March, not too surprising with supercore strength concentrated in a few items.
  • Again, they can be noisy from month-to-month but our estimated share of the CPI basket growing faster than 3% annualized on the month was 46% (from 53% in Feb and 58% in Jan, vs 2019 av 42%) whilst the share >5% fell to 33% (from 44% and 49% in Jan, vs 2019 av 25%).
  • Similarly, the share seeing outright deflation on the month increased from 33% to 42% (2019 av 38%).
  • This is based on a narrow basket covering 57 items taken predominantly at index level 4.
  • Separately, a more granular look across 192 items showed a stalling in the share of items seeing inflation faster than 3% Y/Y at 38%. This measure averaged 24% in 2019 and ~20% in 2015-19.