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Divergence Between NBP and Market Expectations Keeps Increasing

POLAND
  • In the past few weeks, we have seen that a rising number of Polish policymakers have been pushing the NBP to start a tightening cycle with a symbolic 10/15bps hike to curb the inflationary pressures.
  • However, the majority of the board is still in favor of keeping interest rates low in order to stimulate the economic recovery as the uncertainty remains elevated (i.e. Delta variant).
  • Hence, the NBP is not expected to follow its CEE peers and will keep its benchmark rate steady at 0.1% on Thursday July 8.
  • However, participants have been gradually betting on rate hikes in the coming meetings. The FRA 6Mx9M is currently trading 43bps higher than the Wibor 3M, implying that the market is currently pricing in up to three 15bps hikes by the end of this year.
  • Will NBP policymakers be able to hold interest rates steady until the MPC terms ends (in Q1 2022)?
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