Free Trial

Divergence Craters Between CNYJPY and Chinese Equities

CHINA
  • The divergence persists between the CNYJPY exchange rate and Chinese equities as the global risk-off environment, the significant deceleration in the domestic economy and the government's crackdown on a range of industries have been weighing on risky assets.
  • CNYJPY and Hang Seng Index have historically shown strong co-movement; periods of appreciating CNY (relative to JPY) have been associated with trending equities and vice versa.
  • However, momentum on CNY has remained firm in the past year despite the significant deterioration in Chinese economic indicators.
  • CNYJPY is now up over 25% in the past two year, while Hang Seng index fell below its March 2020 this week and is down 35% since its February 2021 high.
  • CNY has remained strong this year as the significant divergence between DM central banks' assets and PBoC (PBoC assets are almost unchanged since the pandemic) has been supporting the yuan.
  • In addition, CNY has also been benefitting from ‘safe-haven’ flows from global investors in recent weeks (including Russia).
  • CNYJPY has been testing its 18.30 resistance in the past week; a break above that level would open the door for a move up to 18.50 (January 2016 highs).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.