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Divergence in Central Bank Communication Triggers Surge in PLNCZK

CEE FX
The divergence in communication between the central banks of the CE3 economies has led to some substantial moves across CE3 FX. Today, NBP Governor Glapinski’s press conference has been interpreted as moderately hawkish, while the CNB has accelerated the pace of monetary easing with a 50bp cut (with one member voting for an even larger 75bp cut). Last week, the NBH surprised markets with a smaller-than-expected 75bp rate cut compared to unanimous sell-side consensus of a 75bp move. While that initially triggered a dip in EURHUF, the cross has since returned back toward pre-NBH levels.
  • As noted previously, the dovish vote CNB vote split and relatively hawkish NBP press conference by Governor Glapinski has led to a surge of as much as 1.6% in PLNCZK, which pierced the 5.8000 handle for the first time since March 2021, and is currently at its highest since December 2020. PLNHUF, meanwhile, is up 0.4% on the day and at a fresh all-time high. CZKHUF is down over 1% and re-approaching the cluster of lows in the 15.3000 region. A break here would put the cross at its lowest in over 20 months.


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